The sharp drop in oil prices is both a blessing (especially for consumers and inflation indices) and a threat (for Saudi Arabia and Russia notably, amongst others). Similarly, the newfound European unity around a common defence programme involves a delicate

The financial world is currently in turmoil, with the Trump “liberation day” tariffs causing incredulity and concern amongst economists and business leaders, driving retaliatory measures by trade partners and wreaking havoc in stock markets across the globe. The underlying agenda

The past few weeks have seen the new US administration fire fast (and rather rashly) in all directions, with consequences that may, however, turn out very different to those intended. What if “America first” were to become “America only”, as

The irruption of Chinese newcomer Deepseek into the world of artificial intelligence (AI) software came as a shock to financial markets, exerting brief but intense downward pressure on US technology megacaps. To us, however, the bigger surprise was that investors

Financial markets entered 2024 with high hopes for a monetary policy pivot, against a backdrop of receding inflation. The Swiss National Bank, followed by the European Central Bank and, finally, the Federal Reserve fulfilled their wishes – propelling equity indices

In these final days of 2024, a form of revolution is unfolding before our eyes – and not just in the US or the Middle East. France and Germany, Europe’s main axis, are in deep trouble. The threat to democracy

Contrary to many expectations, the US elections produced a prompt and unambiguous result. The president-elect and his Republican party were effectively given a blank cheque, with a majority in both the Senate and House of Representatives. It thus appears likely

The final days of September saw a series of stimulus measures be announced by Chinese authorities, catching the financial world by surprise and triggering a sharp rally in the –undervalued – local stock market. The fact that Beijing has decided

Equity market volatility stepped up in August, reflecting a still highly uncertain economic and geopolitical backdrop. The outcome of the US presidential election – now less than two months away – is a particular focus in this regard. On the

July proved an eventful month, to say the least. The assassination attempt on Donald Trump, shortly followed by US President Biden’s decision not to run for re-election, somewhat eclipsed an important development in China, where the ruling Communist Party decided