The US banking troubles may not be over, after all. The most recent failures pertain, however, not to accessing central bank liquidity, a matter that was fixed by the Federal Reserve immediately after Silicon Valley Bank went under, but rather

Over the past few weeks, interest rates have experienced remarkable volatility, with daily swings of 20 basis points becoming the norm. This is unprecedented in recent history. Bond markets are clearly taking recession risks seriously: from 5.1% in early March,

Equity markets were lacklustre in February, despite a flow of broadly supportive news: the Chinese revival, US/European economic indicators that suggest a recession will be avoided, good company results and guidance, stabilising headline inflation… While the risk of a severe

Financial markets have certainly started 2023 on a strong note, never mind the ongoing central bank tightening and generally weaker outlook for corporate earnings. This newfound investor optimism appears to be rooted in decelerating inflation (to the point, is the

With (benchmarked) balanced portfolios having lost close to 15% in nominal terms and a further 10% in purchasing power due to inflation, 2022 proved a terrible year for investors. Some actively managed portfolios fared better, by staying away from the

As the Western world heads towards recession, China could well buck the trend, thanks to a long-awaited easing of Covid restrictions. While this move probably has more to do with social stability concerns than economic growth, the fact of the

The time may not yet have come for a broad-based “tipping” of portfolios from equities to bonds, but some areas of the fixed income market are certainly becoming compelling. And we speak not of US government bonds, whose (admittedly now

With central banks (finally) taking the measure of the inflationary risk and signalling continued rates hikes until price indices fall under control, nominal bonds yields are also moving up fast. Which is bringing them closer to the level at which

The winter promises to be challenging, especially in Europe. Absent a change in leadership in Russia (the only hope at this point for an end to the war in Ukraine), energy prices will remain sky-high, particularly in the more gas-dependent

Even as large parts of the world are already struggling with a mild recession – soon to become a severe one if the many current geopolitical problems are not rapidly resolved – financial markets had a party in July, with