Geopolitics unfortunately took centre stage again in October, with a brutal conflict erupting in the Middle East. The overall economic picture, meanwhile, continues to deteriorate as the effects of 18 months of monetary tightening begin to take their toll. Yet,

The major take-away of the past few weeks has been the breakout in long-term yields. The 30-year US Treasury briefly hit 5% in the opening days of October, certainly an important threshold for investors. And a similar move is underway

Contrary to common assertions, we do not consider the situation on the energy front to be that rosy. Oil is once again trading around USD 90 per barrel, meaning that its past months’ moderating effect on overall inflation indices has

On Wall Street, July saw a continuation of the strong June market performance, with the large technology names again posting the largest gains. To the point that Nasdaq decided to trim the weightings of the “Magnificent Seven” components of the

There was a time when the actions of Chinese policymakers were predictable, focused on only one goal: to maximise economic growth. Over the past few years, however, their motives seem to have shifted. First came strict regulation of the technology

The word likes not to be spoken, but stagflation is indeed what the global economy is currently undergoing: slow (or almost no) GDP growth together with stubborn core inflation. The positive news is that a recession seems to have been

The US banking troubles may not be over, after all. The most recent failures pertain, however, not to accessing central bank liquidity, a matter that was fixed by the Federal Reserve immediately after Silicon Valley Bank went under, but rather

Over the past few weeks, interest rates have experienced remarkable volatility, with daily swings of 20 basis points becoming the norm. This is unprecedented in recent history. Bond markets are clearly taking recession risks seriously: from 5.1% in early March,

Equity markets were lacklustre in February, despite a flow of broadly supportive news: the Chinese revival, US/European economic indicators that suggest a recession will be avoided, good company results and guidance, stabilising headline inflation… While the risk of a severe

Financial markets have certainly started 2023 on a strong note, never mind the ongoing central bank tightening and generally weaker outlook for corporate earnings. This newfound investor optimism appears to be rooted in decelerating inflation (to the point, is the